Copper Prices Diverge as Trump’s Tariff Threat Roils Markets
- 31-Jan-2025 8:45 PM
- Journalist: Peter Schmidt
Copper prices showed contrasting trends in global markets following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to impose import tariffs on copper, aluminium, steel, and other products. While copper futures rose in New York, they slipped in London, as market participants grappled with the potential implications of these tariffs on global demand and manufacturing costs.
In a speech outlining his trade policy, Trump emphasized the need to bolster U.S. manufacturing by placing tariffs on critical materials, including copper. The announcement adds to a growing list of trade threats from the new administration, which has already raised concerns among traders regarding the potential for higher input costs for U.S. manufacturers and disruptions to global supply chains.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been advocating for tariffs starting at a rate of 2.5%, which could rise over time, although Trump has indicated that he envisions significantly higher levies. The proposed tariffs are part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign metals and bring production back to the U.S., particularly for military and industrial needs.
While the immediate impact on copper markets has been noticeable, the longer-term effects of the U.S. tariffs remain uncertain. The tariffs could dampen copper demand by slowing global growth and driving up inflation in the U.S. However, there are also indications that China could mitigate the negative effects by ramping up domestic consumption, potentially offsetting the loss of copper exports to the U.S.
The broader industrial metals market also felt the effects of tariff concerns, with aluminium and zinc prices dropping on the LME. A stronger U.S. dollar further complicated the picture, eroding the purchasing power of importers in major economies such as China, which could suppress demand for copper and other industrial metals.
Canada, a significant supplier of copper and aluminium to the U.S., is expected to be particularly affected by any tariffs on these metals. As the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on foreign imports, Canada’s position as the top U.S. supplier of aluminium and a key copper exporter makes it vulnerable to trade disruptions.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is creating additional volatility in the copper market, with global demand and economic growth concerns weighing heavily on industry sentiment. As traders continue to navigate this evolving situation, the outlook for copper remains highly uncertain, with the potential for both short-term price fluctuations and long-term market shifts.