Global Coffee prices experienced a substantial surge in November 2024, continuing the upward trend observed in the previous month. The increase was primarily driven by heightened demand associated with upcoming festive celebrations and concerns over potential crop damage in Brazil, the world's largest Coffee producer. The adverse impact of drought conditions, exacerbated by the El Niño effect, has further strained Brazil’s Coffee output, contributing significantly to the escalating prices. These factors collectively underscore the market's sensitivity to both seasonal demand and climate-related disruptions.

The Coffee market in Brazil is experiencing upward price pressure, influenced by international trends, particularly from Brazil, a major global producer. In Brazil, Coffee prices have exhibited heightened volatility this month, largely due to increased seasonal demand driven by Thanksgiving Day, the approaching Christmas season, and New Year festivities. These celebrations typically elevate Coffee consumption, amplifying demand in the global market. Additionally, Brazil is grappling with adverse climatic conditions, including persistent droughts and high temperatures, which have significantly impacted Coffee production. These weather-related challenges have led to potential production losses, contributing to the steady rise in prices observed over recent months. Moreover, logistical constraints have further exacerbated the situation. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), exporters are facing continued difficulties at ports, stemming from inadequate infrastructure for containerized cargo. These challenges have disrupted the smooth flow of exports, tightened global supplies and pushed prices higher. Brazil, being a key player in the global Coffee market, is feeling the ripple effects of these developments. The combination of increased international demand, supply constraints from Brazil, and the interconnected nature of the global Coffee trade is driving up domestic prices, potentially impacting local consumers and exporters.

In Vietnam, Coffee prices have surged sharply, mirroring global market dynamics. Logistical and weather-related disruptions in Brazil, the world’s largest Coffee producer, have compelled several Coffee-importing countries to diversify their sourcing strategies. Consequently, Vietnam and Colombia have emerged as key alternatives, resulting in heightened demand and subsequent price increases in the Vietnamese market. Despite the passage of Tropical Storm Trami, Vietnam's Coffee harvest remained largely unaffected, ensuring a steady supply of high-quality Coffee beans. This resilience has positioned Vietnam favorably in the global trade, further bolstered by the robust demand from international markets. Market insights indicate that Vietnam’s Coffee export revenue is projected to achieve a historic high of USD 5.6 billion in 2024. This milestone reflects the combined impact of rising global Coffee prices, Vietnam’s stable production, and its strategic role in meeting the supply gaps caused by Brazil’s challenges. These factors underscore Vietnam's growing prominence as a reliable Coffee supplier in the global market, particularly during periods of supply chain volatility.

According to ChemAnalyst, Coffee prices are projected to reach unprecedented levels in 2025, driven by a combination of agricultural challenges and currency fluctuations. The ongoing climate-related disruptions, including unpredictable weather patterns and persistent droughts in key Coffee-producing regions, are expected to constrain global supply. These challenges are likely to exacerbate production costs and reduce yield quality, contributing to upward price pressures.