Coal Plant Retirements Drive Down CO2 Emissions in Northwest

In the ongoing energy transition marked by the retirement of coal plants, the United States is witnessing a notable decline in CO2 emissions, a trend also evident in the Northwest region. The January meeting of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council brought attention to this shift, highlighting the region's commitment to reducing emissions, primarily driven by the phasing out of coal-fired power generation.

The Northwest region has traditionally boasted lower emissions compared to other parts of the US, a characteristic attributed largely to its reliance on hydropower generation. However, with most existing coal plants in the region scheduled for retirement by 2030, there is a strategic focus on replacing their capacity with renewable energy sources. This deliberate transition aligns with broader national efforts to mitigate the environmental impact of power generation.

An essential milestone in this transition occurred in 2018 when natural gas surpassed coal in power generation in the Northwest for the first time. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NPCC) anticipates a continued rise in the utilization of gas plants in the near term, recognizing their flexibility and role in providing reserves. However, the expectation is tempered by the projection that few new gas plants will be constructed in the region.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports a 3% decline in CO2 emissions between 2022 and 2023, attributing this reduction largely to the replacement of some coal-fired generation with renewable energy sources like solar power. The EIA anticipates the continuation of this trend into 2024, with a forecasted 1% decline in CO2 emissions relative to 2023. Specifically, it projects an 18% decrease in coal-related CO2 emissions in 2023, followed by a 5% decline in 2024.

As the region witnesses a decline in coal use, there is a concurrent rise in natural gas utilization. The shift towards renewables is gaining momentum, propelled by legislative support and declining costs. The council underscores the impact of legislative initiatives and the decreasing costs of renewable energy sources as key drivers behind the increasing use of renewables in the region.

Nationally, the surge in renewable generation is expected to continue, with an anticipated addition of 60 GW of new solar generating capacity during 2023 and 2024. The EIA predicts that this increase in solar capacity, coupled with a forecasted rise in hydropower generation and modest gains in new wind capacity, will contribute to a reduction in both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation in 2024.