China Sets Pace in Forecasts for Renewable Energy and Coal Power

China is solidifying its position as the global powerhouse in renewable energy, with projections indicating that the country will add more capacity in the next five years than the rest of the world combined, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Renewables 2023 report released on Thursday.

In the period from 2023 to 2028, China is expected to contribute to 56% of the total global renewable energy capacity additions. The IEA data highlights that China is anticipated to increase its renewable capacity by a substantial 2,060 gigawatts (GW) during this forecast period, while the rest of the world is projected to add 1,574 GW. Notably, the European Union and the United States follow as the next significant contributors to renewable energy, with 429 GW and 337 GW, respectively.

It is crucial to underscore that India is also forecasted to make a significant impact, adding 203 GW of renewable capacity. Additionally, the 11 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are collectively expected to enhance their capacity by 63 GW. This underscores the pivotal role of Asia in renewable energy deployment, attributed to supportive policies, capital availability, and electricity offtake agreements.

China's advantage in renewable energy deployment extends beyond supportive policies and manufacturing capabilities. The country has the ability to approve and build transmission grids and renewable energy projects swiftly, thanks to a streamlined decision-making process. China's financial capacity to fund projects efficiently, its manufacturing prowess for PV panels and wind turbines, and its strategic investments in minerals such as copper, nickel, and lithium contribute to its dominance in the global renewable energy landscape.

However, it is noteworthy that alongside its rapid expansion in renewable capacity, China continues to invest substantially in coal-fired generation. China, being the largest coal producer and importer globally, has more coal-fired capacity under construction than the rest of the world combined. The country is currently building 136.24 GW of coal-fired generation, with an additional 255.5 GW at various stages of planning and development.

This dual trajectory—significant renewable energy deployment coupled with ongoing investment in coal-fired capacity—presents a nuanced view of China's energy profile. While renewables are increasing their share in China's power generation, coal-fired power is anticipated to remain a substantial part of the energy mix for decades. Achieving China's goal of net-zero emissions by 2060 will involve a complex transition, with renewables playing an increasing role in the latter years leading up to the deadline.