In a significant shift, China and India have suspended their March purchases of Russian oil, a move driven by escalating shipping costs and new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector. The suspension is set to impact the global oil market, especially for countries relying on Russian crude, such as the two Asian giants.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s recent sanctions package, aimed at further weakening Russia’s energy revenues, specifically targeted 183 vessels, including those in Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to bypass Western price caps. This crackdown has resulted in a dramatic increase in shipping costs for Russian crude, particularly for ESPO Blend oil, a key export of Russia’s Far East region. Shipping rates for Aframax tankers, which typically carry around 100,000 metric tons, have surged to around $6.4-$7.4 million for delivery to China and $9-$10 million for delivery to India, a substantial increase from previous levels.

The rising shipping costs have made Russian oil less attractive to both China and India, even though offers for ESPO Blend crude to China have risen to premiums of $3 to $5 per barrel above Brent Crude. As of mid-Tuesday, Brent Crude was priced at $77.30 per barrel. Despite the higher premiums, Indian refiners have not received any fresh offers for March deliveries, as reported by Bharat Petroleum finance chief Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta, adding further uncertainty to India’s Russian crude supply chain.

In China, newly sanctioned tankers are facing severe delays unloading their oil shipments. Several tankers have already faced offloading delays lasting weeks. For instance, the tanker Olia, which arrived at Shandong’s Yantai port, carried its ESPO cargo for nearly three weeks before discharging it. Other vessels like Huihai Pacific are still waiting to discharge oil after being stuck offshore for extended periods. These delays are expected to further disrupt the steady flow of Russian crude to China.

Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions and the ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group are expected to result in a loss of up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude supply to China. In response, refiners in Shandong province are expected to reduce their runs by 400,000 bpd by February, a direct consequence of the more expensive and delayed shipments. For India, the disruption is expected to affect 450,000 bpd of Russian crude supply. To mitigate this, Indian refiners are already seeking alternative crude supplies from the Middle East, Africa, and the U.S. for March and April.

Both countries are adjusting to these challenges, with China’s imports of Russian Far East crude recently falling to a six-month low of 717,000 bpd. As the global oil market adapts to these shifting dynamics, the chemical industry should brace for potential supply chain disruptions and higher prices, which could ripple across sectors reliant on oil-based products and raw materials.