Brisk Demand and Supply Squeeze Boost Bisphenol A Prices

Throughout June 2024, Bisphenol A (BPA) prices in China saw an increase driven by several factors. Moderate demand, elevated feedstock phenol prices, and impending maintenance shutdowns at downstream polycarbonate (PC) plants all contributed to this rise. The BPA market, closely tied to the PC sector, faced heightened demand as several facilities geared up for maintenance beginning mid-July 2024. Wenhua Chemical's PC unit, boasting an annual capacity of 550,000 tons, is currently operating at full capacity ahead of its scheduled maintenance. PC supplies are predominantly directed to key customers. Moreover, a 2.6% decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA, raised BPA production costs, further bolstering price hikes in the market.

In mid-2024, China's manufacturing sector experienced significant expansion, marking its fastest production growth in two years, driven by increased new orders. This growth resulted in higher input costs, prompting the first increase in average selling prices for the year. Persistent challenges included delayed supplier logistics due to extreme weather and material shortages. Shengtong Juyuan's polycarbonate (PC) production resumed in early July, contributing to the steady recovery of BPA supply. Meanwhile, China's export container transport market remained robust in June 2024, supported by strong demand and rising freight rates, despite logistical obstacles, which also affected BPA shipments. On the energy front, China's domestic coal market remained sluggish due to persistent rains in South China, a key coal-consuming region. Spot thermal coal transactions were limited at northern ports as cautious buyers held off amid a bearish market outlook during the rainy season. However, elevated feedstock and upstream crude oil prices offset the downward pressure on coal prices, maintaining high production costs across sectors.

In Asia, spot prices for most petrochemicals, including BPA, have surged due to rising freight and container costs, exacerbated by ongoing logistics challenges and a seasonal uptick in demand. Demand for BPA is gradually improving alongside a slow but steady recovery in the construction sector, which is boosting the downstream epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) markets. China's real estate market is showing signs of stabilization in key cities after bottoming out, with real estate companies cautiously investing amidst a weak consolidation phase in the first half of 2024. Favorable policies are expected to bolster market confidence and facilitate a gradual recovery, supporting increased demand for downstream PC and epoxy resin products, including those derived from BPA. Notably, in June 2024, the top 100 real estate companies reported a 36.3% month-on-month increase in sales, though cumulative sales remained 40% lower year-on-year.

According to ChemAnalyst, BPA prices are anticipated to decrease in the coming months. This is based on several factors affecting the BPA market: logistics issues causing oversupply in Asia, resumed operations at plants previously shut down, which improve supply, and low energy prices. These factors collectively suggest that downward pressure on BPA prices is likely in the near term.