According to data released by the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources, Australia is anticipating an increase in its metallurgical coal exports for the fiscal year 2023-24 (July-June). The estimated export volume is expected to reach 172 million metric tons, representing a 9.6% rise from the approximately 157 million metric tons recorded in the previous fiscal year, 2022-23. It is noteworthy that met coal exports are expected to remain stable at 172 million metric tons in 2024-25.

The surge in export projections can be attributed to the opening of several new mines. However, despite the increased export volume, the forecast indicates a decrease in export value due to lower prices. In particular, the export value is expected to decline from A$62 billion ($39.2 billion) in 2022-23 to A$47.2 billion in 2023-24 and further to A$41 billion in 2024-25.

The Department of Industry, Science, and Resources highlighted the imminent opening of new mines, including the Maxwell and Vickery mines in New South Wales (NSW), as well as the Burton, North Goonyella, Hillalong, Wilton Fairhill, and Olive Downs projects in Queensland. These developments are set to bolster Australia's metallurgical coal output, which is projected to reach 178 million metric tons in both 2023-24 and 2024-25. This marks an increase from the 168 million metric tons recorded in 2022-23. However, the upward trend in production is expected to be counterbalanced by lower spot prices.

The department emphasized that the combination of more stable supply and weaker demand is likely to result in a moderate but noticeable decline in coal prices. External factors such as weather events and conflicts in the Black Sea region add to the potential price volatility. Consequently, the department's projections suggest that average prices for Australian metallurgical coal will decrease from $264 per metric ton in 2023 to $223 per metric ton in 2024 and further to approximately $205 per metric ton by 2025.

Despite the varied outlook for Australia's metallurgical coal industry, the department noted the challenges faced in regaining market share in China. While trade restrictions targeting Australian coal have ended, exports to China remain limited. In July 2023, only about 200,000 metric tons of metallurgical coal were exported to China, a stark contrast to the monthly average of 3.6 million metric tons observed in 2019.

The department observed that the rise of Mongolian metallurgical coal exports to China has been facilitated by new rail links in recent years. Furthermore, Russia has successfully diverted some of its coal exports to China (as well as India) from Western nations that have implemented bans on Russian exports.