For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Diesel Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Diesel Price Index rose by 32.24% quarter-over-quarter, driven by supply tightening.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 5.37/MT, reflecting Washington terminal dynamics.
- Gulf Coast exports tightened balances, elevating Diesel Spot Price in Pacific Northwest terminals during quarter.
- Planned maintenance influenced runs and the Diesel Price Forecast, producing mixed monthly outcomes across markets.
- Improved crude to distillate cracks altered the Diesel Production Cost Trend, enabling higher yields temporarily.
- Freight and agricultural activity shaped the Diesel Demand Outlook early then softened into June thereafter.
- Inventory rebuilds in June moderated the Diesel Price Index as pipeline receipts outpaced regional demand.
- Absence of unplanned outages supported logistics, compressing spot spreads while export arbitrage maintained outbound pressure.
Why did the price of Diesel change in June 2026 in North America?
- Gulf Coast refiners raised runs, increasing diesel output and replenishing Pacific Northwest rack inventories quickly.
- Domestic freight demand plateaued and agricultural post planting lull reduced liftings, easing pressure on terminals.
- Smooth logistics and no major outages improved supplies while favorable crack spreads incentivized increased distillate production.
Canada
- In Canada, the Diesel Price Index rose by 19.6% quarter-over-quarter, due to scheduled refinery outages.
- Diesel Spot Price weakened in June as the Price Index eased amid ample domestic supply.
Diesel Prices in APAC
- In China, the Diesel Price Index rose by 10.85% quarter-over-quarter, mostly reflecting early-quarter supply dynamics.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 1042/MT, measured across ex-Beijing assessments.
- Diesel Spot Price weakened in June as lower WTI trimmed refinery input costs and margins.
- Diesel Price Forecasts for mid-2026 generally signal continued softness amid high output and subdued consumption.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend eased during June after WTI declined, narrowing theoretical refining margin pressure.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remains muted as electrification and weak construction curb freight offtake during summer.
- Rising export allocations pressured the Diesel Price Index as refiners prioritised cargoes over domestic volumes.
- High refinery utilisation and comfortable eastern storage levels maintained pressure, keeping domestic diesel availability ample.
Why did the price of Diesel change in June 2026 in APAC?
- Falling WTI reduced refinery input costs, compressing margins and enabling refiners to lower ex-refinery offers.
- High refinery runs and export quotas boosted output, leaving domestic tanks fuller than demand levels.
- Weak freight and construction activity, plus rapid heavy-truck electrification, reduced diesel offtake and softened support.
India
- In India, the Diesel Price Index rose by 2.8% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export reallocations domestically.
- Diesel Spot Price stayed muted as Chennai port inventories remained comfortable, limiting incremental spot buying.
Diesel Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Diesel Price Index rose by 8.34% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger refinery output and inventory builds.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 7.19/MT based on assessed FD Rio de Janeiro deliveries.
- Diesel Spot Price reflected eased import competition and domestic refinery output, keeping the local Price Index broadly subdued.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend showed limited relief as crude benchmarks remained steady, marginally supporting refinery margins.
- Diesel Demand Outlook pointed to seasonal agricultural lift from sugarcane, offset by weaker freight and construction activity.
- Diesel Price Forecast anticipates short-term softening as imports and high inventories weigh on delivered domestic Price Index.
- Export demand easing to Paraguay and Uruguay reduced arbitrage, supporting inland stock accumulation and downward Price Index pressure.
- Major Petrobras refinery restarts increased supply flexibility, reducing short-term scarcity risk and easing diesel delivered quotations.
Why did the price of Diesel change in June 2026 in South America?
- Domestic refinery run-ups increased diesel availability, raising inventories and exerting downward pressure on delivered prices.
- Seasonal sugarcane harvesting boosted inland demand marginally, counterbalanced by weaker freight and export enquiry declines.
- Stable crude benchmarks limited cost inflation while paused import cargoes briefly tightened supply chain logistics.
Diesel Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Diesel Price Index declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting adequate refinery output and subdued seasonal demand.
- The average Diesel Price Index remained under pressure during the quarter as comfortable inventories and stable imports limited bullish momentum.
- Diesel Spot Price softened in June as refinery utilization remained steady and buyers maintained cautious procurement strategies.
- Diesel Price Forecast indicates a balanced-to-soft outlook in the near term, with movements dependent on crude oil prices, refinery maintenance, and freight costs.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable as crude oil and refining margins fluctuated within a moderate range during the quarter.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remained mixed, supported by freight transportation, industrial operations, agriculture, and construction activities, while weaker manufacturing limited additional consumption.
- The Price Index reflected balanced regional supply, uninterrupted refinery operations, and sufficient import availability across Europe.
- Stable logistics and comfortable storage inventories prevented significant market disruptions throughout the quarter.
Why did the price of Diesel change in June 2026 in Europe?
- Adequate refinery production and sufficient inventories improved diesel availability across the region.
- Stable crude oil and refining costs limited production cost pressure on suppliers.
- Moderate demand from transportation and industrial sectors, combined with cautious purchasing, softened market sentiment during June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Diesel Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Diesel Price Index rose by 9.72% quarter-over-quarter, after turnarounds and freight.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 4.06/Gal, reflecting regional-delivered terminal storage values.
- Diesel Spot Price strengthened in March as tight inland inventories pushed the Price Index higher.
- Diesel Price Forecast scenarios anticipate easing into spring as maintenance concludes and export arbitrage normalizes.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend reflected steady WTI and higher renewable blending costs tightening refinery margins.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remains constructive with freight and agricultural restocking expected to sustain robust consumption.
- Diesel Price Index volatility rose due to reduced pipeline nominations, stronger rack and delivered values.
- Export loadings to Latin America remained active but domestic prioritization tightened availability at Washington hubs.
Why did the price of Diesel change in March 2026 in North America?
- Scheduled Gulf Coast refinery turnarounds reduced diesel yields, tightening supply into Atlantic and Pacific hubs.
- Renewable diesel blending mandates redirected hydrotreating capacity, lowering petroleum diesel production and pressuring spot availability.
- Freight strength and elevated truckload volumes raised consumption, depleting terminals and lifting rack delivered values.
Diesel Prices in APAC
- In China, the Diesel Price Index rose by 3.75% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger crude-driven cost push.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 940.00/MT, reflecting subdued demand domestically.
- Diesel Spot Price strengthened in March, lifting the domestic Price Index amid constrained crude availability.
- War-risk insurance, rising crude elevated the Diesel Production Cost Trend, pressuring the domestic Price Index.
- Diesel Demand Outlook improved as freight and construction activity recovered, supporting firmer wholesale diesel consumption.
- Diesel Price Forecast warns volatility with upside risk if crude supply disruptions persist, constraining margins.
- Export demand and limited releases reduced buffers, tightening regional balances and lifting the Price Index.
- Major refiners maintained high runs; teapot plants used discounted crude, tightening availability and spot dynamics.
Why did the price of Diesel change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Rapid WTI crude escalation increased feedstock costs, transmitting refinery cash cost rises into diesel quotations.
- Beijing's March retail-price adjustment allowed greater pass-through, prompting pre-buying and short-term stock depletion across markets.
- Independent refiners' shift to discounted Iranian crude reduced diesel availability, tightening spot markets despite demand.
Diesel Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Diesel Price Index rose by 7.68% quarter-over-quarter, constrained refinery output and export demand tightness.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately BRI 6.63 /Ltr., reflecting balanced domestic and regional market dynamics.
- Diesel Spot Price strengthened as port inventories tightened, pushing the Brazil Price Index higher across inland hubs.
- Diesel Price Forecast models indicate near-term upside risks from geopolitical flare-ups and harvest-driven freight demand persisting locally.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend remained flat as Brent-linked feedstock prices held steady, limiting refinery margin compression pressure.
- Diesel Demand Outlook brightened with soybean harvest and increased mining haulage elevating regional consumption during March activity.
- Diesel Price Index volatility reflected export diversion, inventory drawdowns at Santos, and precautionary buying by distributors locally.
- Regional export flows tightened supply, while rerouted shipments around Hormuz increased freight risk and delivered cost uncertainty.
Why did the price of Diesel change in March 2026 in South America?
- Peak soybean-harvest trucking surged domestic diesel demand, drawing down port inventories and pushing inland prices.
- Routine maintenance reduced Petrobras refinery output, limiting fresh barrels and intensifying competition for available supply.
- Geopolitical escalation raised war-risk premia, increasing shipping costs and rerouting, inflating landed diesel import costs.
Diesel Prices in Europe
- In Europe, the Diesel Price Index showed a mixed trend in Q1 2026, as early-quarter weakness from soft industrial demand transitioned into firmer March levels driven by supply-side constraints and geopolitical risk premiums.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter reflected moderate volatility, with bearish January sentiment offset by tightening fundamentals toward the end of the quarter.
- Diesel Spot Price dynamics remained range-bound initially but strengthened in March as refinery maintenance, lower import flows, and logistical disruptions tightened prompt availability across key hubs such as ARA.
- The Diesel Production Cost Trend increased during the quarter, supported by higher crude benchmarks, rising refining margins, and elevated hydrogen and energy costs across European refineries.
- The Diesel Demand Outlook remained mixed, with subdued industrial and freight activity early in the quarter, while late-quarter restocking and transportation demand provided partial support.
- The Diesel Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness, driven by geopolitical risks, constrained Russian-origin alternatives, and ongoing refinery maintenance limiting supply flexibility.
- Inventory levels declined gradually across Northwest Europe, particularly in March, as import arbitrage weakened and domestic production faced intermittent disruptions.
- Trade flows were impacted by longer shipping routes and higher freight costs, especially due to rerouting around conflict zones, which increased replacement costs and reduced spot liquidity.
Why did the price of Diesel change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Escalating geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions increased freight, insurance, and replacement costs, directly lifting the Diesel Price Index across Europe.
- Refinery maintenance and unplanned outages reduced regional output, tightening supply and pushing Diesel Spot Price levels higher in prompt markets.
- Lower inventory levels combined with precautionary restocking by distributors and transport sectors amplified upward momentum despite only moderate end-user demand.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In USA, the Diesel Price Index fell by 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant supply, softer crude.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.70 /Gal, reflecting muted seasonal demand conditions.
- Diesel Spot Price softened amid high refinery throughput, keeping the Price Index under downward pressure.
- Diesel Price Forecast indicates limited near-term upside given above-seasonal inventories and subdued transport demand conditions.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend eased with crude feedstock softening, reducing refinery input costs and pressure.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remains muted with slower industrial activity and post-harvest seasonal easing reducing consumption.
- Diesel Price Index volatility rose during November turnarounds, while December inventory builds stabilized pricing levels.
- Export demand stayed steady while refinery runs returned to seasonal norms, sustaining plentiful available supply.
Why did the price of Diesel change in December 2025 in North America?
- Domestic supply expanded as refinery runs held steady and distillate inventories built through December month-end.
- Softer crude benchmarks trimmed refinery input costs, allowing refiners to discount rack prices in December.
- Holiday freight slowed, mild weather curbed heating demand, and renewable diesel gains displaced conventional diesel.
APAC
- In China, the Diesel Price Index fell by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting NDRC caps, softer crude.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 906.00 /MT, domestic and export settlements.
- Diesel Spot Price remained pressured by ample coastal inventories and export quotas diverting barrels abroad.
- Diesel Price Index signalled softness; NDRC caps and lower Brent feedstock reduced refinery netbacks materially.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend eased as crude softened, trimming variable refinery and operating cost margins.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remained subdued as electrification and LNG substitution reduced trucking, urban diesel offtake.
- Diesel Price Forecast indicates near-term volatility, with sensitivity to crude rebounds and seasonal heating demand.
- Refinery operations and inventory management kept domestic availability comfortable, limiting price upside despite export-driven draws.
Why did the price of Diesel change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Policy retail caps in early December compressed refinery margins, lowering ex-refinery prices and spot offers.
- Lower crude during the pricing window reduced production costs, enabling refiners to price diesel cheaper.
- Soft industrial activity and electrification curtailed diesel offtake, while export quotas and storage increased inventories.
South America
- In Brazil, the Diesel Price Index rose by 2.10% quarter-over-quarter, due to regional distribution costs.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately BRI 6.16 / Ltr.,Min , reflecting stable supply balances.
- Diesel Spot Price remained narrow as international freight eased and imports sustained domestic availability levels.
- Diesel Price Forecast indicates modest near-term upside supported by harvest season demand and refinery throughput.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend subdued as Brent traded narrow, limiting refinery margin volatility and uncertainty.
- Diesel Demand Outlook shows firm agricultural and transport consumption, while biodiesel blending displaces mineral diesel.
- Diesel Price Index movement tempered by rising port inventories and record imports, despite export arbitrage.
- Refineries operated without outages, maintaining output, while inland logistics and truck shortages increased distribution costs.
Why did the price of Diesel change in December 2025 in South America?
- Improved refinery runs and record imports increased availability, moderating upward pressure on retail diesel pricing.
- Harvest season demand and regional distribution costs supported consumption increases, pushing localized ex-gate prices higher.
- Neutral Brent movements kept feedstock costs subdued, limiting refinery margin volatility, avoiding diesel price shocks.
Europe
- In Europe, the Diesel Price Index showed a mixed trend in Q4 2025, with early-quarter firmness driven by seasonal transport demand followed by mid-quarter softening due to easing crude oil costs and moderate inventories.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter remained relatively stable, supported by steady consumption from road transport, industrial, and shipping sectors.
- Diesel Spot Price strengthened briefly in October as trucking and logistics companies restocked ahead of the winter season, but later eased in November as crude oil prices softened and demand normalized.
- The Diesel Production Cost Trend remained moderate, influenced by stable crude oil input costs, refinery margins, and energy expenses.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remained balanced, with consistent road transport and industrial demand, while softer shipping activity and mild weather reduced peak winter consumption pressures.
- The Diesel Price Forecast indicates range-bound movements, with upside potential if crude oil prices surge or winter transport demand intensifies, and downside limited by strategic fuel reserves and steady refinery operations.
- Improved refinery output and adequate storage inventories helped prevent sharp price spikes, contributing to the observed mixed trend in the Price Index.
- Operational continuity at major European refineries ensured supply reliability, keeping short-term market volatility in check.
Why did the price of Diesel change in December 2025 in Europe?
- The Price Index rose moderately in December 2025 due to increased demand from logistics, retail transport, and seasonal winter fuel requirements.
- Tightened short-term refinery supply and higher freight activity in some regions supported upward pressure on Spot Prices.
- With the Production Cost Trend stable, the December price change was primarily demand-driven rather than due to cost increases.
- Year-end inventory adjustments and strategic refilling by distributors helped stabilize the market after mid-quarter softness.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Diesel Price Index rose by 5.25% quarter-over-quarter, driven by crude rallies and tight inventories.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.74/Gal.
- Diesel Spot Price eased intramonth as middle distillate spreads narrowed.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend rose with crude input volatility despite improved sour feedstock availability.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remains firm due to freight, agricultural and export-driven consumption.
- Diesel Price Forecast indicates mild variability driven by inventories, refinery outages, and export flows.
- Refinery utilization and exports tightened the Diesel Price Index performance during the quarter.
- Inventory draws and geopolitical risk premiums supported stronger Diesel prices into September.
- Hedging and contractual rollovers influenced Diesel Spot Price volatility and wholesale settlement timing.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in North America?
- Crude benchmark rallies increased refinery input costs, feeding through into diesel margins and pricing.
- Low distillate inventories and strong export demand tightened domestic availability, lifting spot and wholesale prices.
- Geopolitical tensions and Red Sea freight risks elevated risk premia, complicating logistics and supply expectations.
APAC
- In China, the Diesel Price Index rose by 0.25% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting supply-demand dynamics.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 933.00/MT.
- Diesel Spot Price showed volatility tied to international crude and refinery output.
- Diesel Price Forecast expects modest movements as inventories and seasonal demand balance out.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend was influenced by softer crude benchmarks and refinery operating variances.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remained moderate with agricultural seasonal tapering and steady industrial consumption.
- Diesel Price Index showed limited upward pressure from disciplined refinery pricing and controlled domestic supply.
- Port logistics efficiency and elevated inventories influenced export and internal distribution dynamics for Diesel.
- Refinery operating rates and OPEC+ signals constrained pricing flexibility across regional Diesel markets.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Softer international crude and OPEC+ output increases reduced feedstock costs, easing upward pressure.
- Seasonal agricultural slowdown and heavy rains weakened domestic diesel demand across consumption hubs.
- Rising inventories and steady domestic refinery throughput created looser supply supporting price softening.
South America
- In Brazil, the Diesel Price Index fell by 1.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to ample supply.
- The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately BRL 6.03/Ltr.
- Diesel Spot Price softened amid lower crude benchmarks and higher biodiesel blend expectations.
- Diesel Price Forecast signals modest recovery if Russian discounts persistently narrow and logistical constraints continue.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend remained subdued as global crude eased and refinery efficiencies improved.
- Diesel Demand Outlook shows seasonal weakness from agriculture offsets, but transport demand keeps baseline consumption.
- Diesel Price Index movements reflected ample inventories, constrained Russian flows, and Petrobras refinery availability.
- Biodiesel mandate increase encouraged distributors to reduce fossil diesel stocks, exerting downward price pressure.
- Export demand fluctuations and currency volatility influenced import parity and distributor pricing strategies.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in South America?
- Narrowing Russian discounts reduced import advantages, tightening supply and lifting landed procurement costs.
- Sustained domestic transport and agricultural fuel demand offset seasonal declines, supporting retail price resilience.
- Logistical constraints and Petrobras refinery availability influenced supply flows, while crude benchmarks affected input costs.
Europe
- In Europe, the Diesel Price Index displayed a mixed trend through Q3 2025, with prices firming early in the quarter and softening by September.
- Diesel Spot Price strengthened in July and August due to summer driving demand, refinery maintenance, and constrained Russian diesel inflows.
- Toward late September, Diesel Spot Price declined as crude oil benchmarks eased and inventories across Northwest Europe improved.
- Diesel Production Cost Trend remained steady, influenced by stable crude oil feedstock costs and moderated refining spreads.
- Diesel Price Forecast suggests a continuation of mixed momentum into Q4 2025, with potential short-term rebounds driven by winter heating demand but tempered by adequate regional stocks.
- Diesel Demand Outlook remains steady—supported by transport and logistics sectors, though industrial diesel use saw modest contraction amid slower manufacturing activity.
- Refinery utilization rates remained high across Europe, ensuring stable supply levels and restricting sharp upward movement in the Price Index.
- Softer freight rates and stable crude inputs helped contain cost escalation, maintaining a balanced pricing environment across key trading hubs like Rotterdam and Genoa.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in Europe?
- In September 2025, the Diesel Price Index decreased as declining crude oil prices and improved European refinery output eased market tightness.
- Lower road fuel consumption following the end of the summer season reduced spot buying, contributing to downward pressure on prices.
- Stable production costs and sufficient inventories limited cost-push pressure, reinforcing a softer pricing tone across the region.
